Housing market showing signs of normalcy in Camas & Ridgefield
"Not wonderful, but acting more like a normal market."
That's how Clark County real estate broker Mike Lamb described the housing market in his October "Clark County Market Report."
With 30 years of experience in the real estate arena, Lamb has seen many ups and downs, and has a good feel for where the market is headed.
In his report, Lamb cited an improved "average days on the market" indicator. Last month, the average residence spent just 137 days on the market, compared to September 2009's average wait of 150 days.
"This tells us that listings are selling faster because there is significant demand for listings that are well priced and in good condition," said Lamb.
Other signs of improvement include an 11.5 percent increase over August's new closed residential sales and a 16.5 percent increase of houses sold year-to-date, compared to September 2009.
While the sale of existing homes is showing signs of stability, real estate broker Scott Wyckoff said new construction is having trouble following suit.
Wyckoff, who brokers for Lake Oswego-based Hasson Company, said a decreasing inventory of houses in the $300,000 to $600,000 price range means people are having a hard time finding what they want and need – a trend that's revitalizing upper-end construction in Camas and Ridgefield, but not in many other parts of Clark County.
Currently, Hasson is developing Lakeridge North, on the north side of Lake Road in Camas. Of the development's 113 10,000- square-foot lots, Wyckoff said they had sold 42 to date this year.
Not far from Lakeridge North, on Prune Hill near Astor Street and Northwest Dahlia Drive, you'll find Cascade West Development Inc.'s Hunters Ridge project. The firm broke ground on a 3,900-square-foot model home in early October, which should be complete by February.
Brent Kalliainen, project manager for Cascade West, said Hunters Ridge is actually bank-owned. Kalliainen said the bank gave his firm the opportunity to sell lots in the development for one year, and they must meet a certain quota. He said they've already sold three or four lots out of a total of 22, which range in size from 9,000 to 13,000-square-feet.
Another project under the care of Cascade West is Heron Ridge, in Ridgefield. The project was started in 2004, with a total of 140 lots. According to Kalliainen, roughly ten lots have been sold year-to-date, with about 55 or 60 left to go. He said compared to the past few years, lot sales have picked up dramatically.
There are, however, some areas of concern. Wyckoff said low lot prices, a lack of financing and the high cost of development (such as permit fees) have made developing raw land too risky for most builders. Kalliainen agreed, and said new construction is occurring in subdivisions that already have underground utilities and other infrastructures installed.
"Nobody is developing raw land," he said.
Based on current sales and the dearth of new development projects, Kalliainen believes Clark County could see a shortage of lots in two to four years. Wyckoff fears the lack of new construction might wreak havoc on the county's economy because framers, landscapers and electricians will have trouble finding work. He also said it would be nice if the banks were more creative in financing new developments, such as participating in joint ventures with developers and assuming some of the risk.
Despite the concerns, brokers and developers remain optimistic about real estate's future in Southwest Washington.
"Buyer interest seems to be improving again, and there is a growing sense that real estate is a good investment," said Lamb in his October report. "This is good news for the long term."
"My gut feeling is that we're moving forward and on the road to recovery," Kalliainen agreed.
A measured concern
Each developer the Vancouver Business Journal contacted about the state of the current housing market expressed concern over the potential passing of Measure 1098. The measure proposes, among other things, to implement an income tax on Washington residents who make more than $200,000 year.
"1098 will play a big role in our market," said Wyckoff.
Wyckoff explained that many people bought property in Washington after moving from Oregon in the months following the passage of Measures 66 and 67. The measures, which passed in January, raised taxes on corporations and individuals making over $250,000.
"People are waiting to see what Washington will do," he said.
Kalliainen is also proceeding with caution in regard to Measure 1098.
He said the firm Fisher Investments is a good illustration of why 100 employees at the investment company recently relocated to the Vancouver area and the company has about 700 more waiting in the wings, according to Killianen, before they get relocated, he said Fisher is waiting to see if 1098 passes because many of their employees make more than $200,000 per year.
If the measure passes and those 700 employees move elsewhere, Kalliainen said that's an awful lot of business his development firm will miss out on.
