2010 pivotal turning point between recession and recovery
Throughout 2009, economic experts told us time and time again that the regional economy had not yet hit bottom.
Today, as we enter the middle of the first quarter of 2010, some report that they have at last found the bottom of the worst recession in memory. Others say it feels like we're just bouncing along the bottom, while still others remain cautiously optimistic. And there are a few that say they cannot wait a moment longer.
Despite these mixed signals, economic forecasting experts are beginning to line up in their belief in a sustained economic recovery. Calling attendees at the Economic Forecast Breakfast event at the Vancouver Hilton last month "recession survivors," state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council executive director Arun Raha proclaimed that we were already well down the long road to recovery.
Another economic forecaster – this time from the private sector – provided a similar viewpoint. In an interview with the VBJ on Jan. 29, U.S. Trust/Bank of America economist Laks Ramachandran called 2010 a "pivotal year," a gateway from the recession of the past to the recovery of the future.
Admittedly, these two economists look at financial markets from a statewide, national and global perspective and provide only a glimmer of insight into the economy of Southwest Washington. Even so, the economic indicators they follow regarding demographics, job creation and the slow normalization of commercial credit lines all support their position of 2010 as a year of broad-based recovery.
They also have their caveats. For example, Ramachandran cited three risks that could stall or halt economic progress, including policy missteps derailing the global recovery, protectionism and a geo-political incident of the magnitude of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the U.S.
Calling risk the "good friend" of opportunity, Ramachandran believed these particular risks to be low given the available information.
Locally, the conversation has turned cautiously optimistic. In a story in last week's VBJ, we reported on Kazoodles owners Bob and Mary Sisson's decision to open a second location in east Vancouver. Mike Jenkins of Jenkins Bernhardt Coldwell Banker Commercial recently moved forward with development of the vacant Cosmic Coffee site on 112th Avenue in Orchards. Meanwhile, on 192nd Avenue near the Vancouver-Camas city line, developer Dean Kirkwood secured a deal last month to create a new retail center.
Also lining up in our favor, initial reaction to the passage of Measures 66 and 67 in Oregon suggests that battered Clark County property values will get a needed boost as higher-income earners in the Beaver State look for ways to shelter their income from even higher personal income taxes.
However, if 2010 is to be a pivotal year in our regional economic recovery, it will only be because each of us decides that it's time to get back in the game. No amount of stimulus or bailout is an adequate substitute for getting back to business, visiting our customers, listening to their needs and delivering on them better than anyone else.
2009 was brutal. But it is a new year, a pivotal one in the region's recovery – that is, if we make it happen.
